The dust is starting to settle after one of the least politically interesting elections in living memory for the voters of NSW – and that’s saying something. Labor, with support from the teals, has limped into minority government in the lower house after a campaign with minimal policy differences where both major parties consistently praised each other and took money from the same corporations. Now Labor is in government in almost every state and territory as well as federally despite continuing to generally receive a low primary vote that would look humiliating if their 2011 loss was not already part of the record books.

There is no indication that Labor is set for a political renewal after openly declaring their continued support for fossil fuel extraction in the Pilliga and subservience to the gambling lobby minutes after being confirmed in government and making no commitments beyond talking with unions and potential reviews and inquiries for queer rights. NSW Labor’s strategy has been to offer a small target, in homage to Anthony Albanese’s 2022 federal campaign and UK Labour’s Keir Starmer, while waiting for the right to implode under its own internal pressures and scandals. This has built Labor’s electoral support amongst more middle class areas that once trended to the Liberals, like the South Coast, Kiama, Terrigal, and Oatley, while its branches have continued to decay and ensured the mirage of change from within is even less possible now than it ever was before.

The Greens’ campaign argued to Labor voters that electing Greens MPs would push Labor into a minority government that would concede to the demands of the public sector unions to rebuild services and address cost of living, and to the fight by First Nations people to end fracking and secure land rights. Despite an atrocious lead upper house candidate, who in a different universe may have found a home amidst the moderate Liberals, the Greens look to have maintained their current seats. They have consolidated small but not insignificant swings in Summer Hill, Wollongong, South Coast, and Newcastle which are a positive sign, but gone backwards in Lismore. Locked out of the balance of power and unlikely to win further lower house seats until the 2031 election, it’s unclear where their balance of power strategy will lead them, despite having the only consistently growing grassroots membership amongst parliamentary parties. 

The Liberals are continuing to explode under the pressures and contradictions of Independent challenges on their moderate flank in the northern and eastern suburbs of Sydney, with 3 new independents elected and white nationalists from One Nation splitting their vote on their right flank. Despite One Nation flunking in the polls and mild results from the teals, MPs and party officials have begun to attack each other publicly and are wringing their hands about being permanently excluded from government. Matt Kean, leading moderate of the NSW Liberals, has been accused of being a secret Green, while moderates mutter about breaking the coalition with the Nationals and their obsessive hate for koalas. They have gone from being a self-obsessed scandal-driven minority government to being a self-obsessed scandal-driven opposition with few seats to show for it. Next!

The hard right have been talked up in the media throughout the election campaign as ‘king makers’, and parts of One Nation’s base grew bold enough to hold street protests during World Pride and in the campaign period. Their leader, Latham has made a tactical alliance with fringe group ‘Christian Lives Matter’ (CLM), and has recruited an ex-Labor MP friendly with their congregation and spoken at their events, which built up to CLM organising a gay bashing of fifteen queer activists outside a One Nation event. Three CLM organisers have since been arrested, the actions were condemned by Greens, teals, and Liberals, and One Nation’s vote went down. The backlash has spiralled outward as Mark Latham has responded to teal criticism of the gay bashing with: “Disgusting? How does that compare with sticking your dick up a bloke’s arse and covering it with shit?” which has invited further condemnation with the new Labor Premier pledging to never work with Latham. Given the death of Nile’s Christian Democrats and the isolation of One Nation, this election was certainly not a win for the hard right.

The other surprise result of the evening is that Legalise Cannibis’ paper campaign looks likely to elect Jeremy Buckingham – a Zionist and anti-unionist driven out of the Greens due to sexual assault allegations. This party has a history of being riddled with anti-vax conspiracists and TERFs across the different states, and draws its votes from the same regions as the floundering One Nation and Shooters and Fishers. Labor will likely rely on both his vote, and those of the Shooters, to pass legislation in the upper house on the odd occasion they disagree with the Liberals. It remains to be seen what conspiracy theories he will want validated in exchange, and what further excesses will occur as he panders to One Nation’s support base.

The end result is far from inspirational. Labor is at the peak of its power and – with this power – is doing nothing but continuing to race us further toward climate catastrophe and wealth inequality. The well-intentioned balance of power strategy offered by the Greens as an alternative to strikes as a way to challenge the Labor government is also all but exhausted. Now is the time for us all to get serious, organise, and fight to rebuild the strike wave to force Labor to concede to union demands, stand with Gomeroi people in blocking gas in the Pilliga, and take to the streets to quash the transphobic right and win equality for queer people. It’s clear that there is no alternative but class struggle, so let’s get out there and build it.